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A decade following the UK stumbled into a hasty referendum that polarised the nation and unleashed disorder, a warning comes from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.

Policymakers and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the same may happen with a national vote on a unified Ireland, sparking upheavals for which no one is equipped.

That is the message from two leading writers from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.

Administrative Institutions Ill-Equipped

The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a potentially fraught and seismic public vote.

"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can build support rapidly," O’Toole said. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our islands remains highly fragile."

Released Volume Aims to Stir Debate

The team have studied the governmental, financial and societal reasons for any structural alteration in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.

They hope to encourage dialogue on the matter with a roadshow of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.

"What concerns everybody, or must worry every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented the analyst.

"We do not want a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose implications have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily polarised community where the losing side are not reconciled to losing and the those successful are uncertain quite what it is that they have achieved."

Legal Framework

Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a public vote on Irish unity if it appears likely that a most voters would vote in favour.

Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups say this point is approaching, and a organisation named pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but both governments and unionists play down the prospect, leaving it unclear if and when there might be a national vote.

Lack of Informed Dialogue

Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unity has masked the shortage of informed dialogue, noted the journalist.

"Many are for or against the concept but the concrete planning which could extend past that to achieve it is mostly absent. Much has gone on in scholarly circles but hardly any government figures or advocates seek to involve themselves even with the basics. As an example, what type of nation would you want? Unitary? Federal?"

Volume's Strategy

In the volume, no writer advocates unity or the existing arrangement. They writes two articles that aim for neutrality in detailing the rationale for a unified Ireland and the argument opposing it, assembling economic and social data, historical precedents and structural examples.

Arguments range over identity markers, taxes, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the threat of unionist unrest. The objective is to enlighten and encourage conversation.

"There's huge interest in the topic but there hasn't quite been a debate," stated O’Toole. "Dialogue indicates an acknowledgement of the notion that there might be good arguments on each side."

Dual Referendums

A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where citizens say they favour unification but reject greater financial contributions or introducing a new flag to acknowledge unionists' UK heritage.

"Authorities in Dublin does need to establish what the plan from Irish nationalism is aside from just saying: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we love you'," said O’Toole.

Probability of Referendum

McBride believes a national vote in his era is likely and that it might occur unexpectedly. "There might be just a mad or a ill-advised or a feckless government minister who says: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"

Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, legitimate perspectives, he stated. "One side will succeed here and somebody will in the end not succeed but all factions has possesses something to acquire from the alternative arguments."

Request for More Extensive Discussion

Westminster should participate in the discussion, urged O’Toole. "This concerns Britain. It is a British issue equally as it is an Irish question."